Democrat Katie Hobbs wins race for Arizona governor; GOP's Lake not picking up enough late votes

Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs will win the race for Arizona governor, beating Trumpist Republican Kari Lake as the final batches of votes are counted, the Tucson Sentinel projects. Hobbs is leading by about 25,000 votes, and Lake doesn't have enough running room to make up that ground.

The victory means that for the first time since 2009, a Democrat will sit at the desk of Arizona's governor.

Hobbs was leading by 20,481 votes Monday evening, after a large update from Maricopa County, and that figure was pushed to 20,777 after a small addition to the county from Apache County.

Hobbs stood at 1,265,740 votes, with Lake at 1,244,963 votes.

“I want to thank the voters for entrusting me with this immense responsibility," Hobss said in a press release. "It is truly an honor of a lifetime, and I will do everything in my power to make you proud."

"For the Arizonans who did not vote for me, I will work just as hard for you -because even in this moment of division, I believe there is so much more that connects us," the Democrat said. "We all want safer streets, a secure border, better schools, lower costs, and water for generations to come. This was not just about an election — it was about moving this state forward and facing the challenges of our generation. It is about giving our kids the safe and prosperous future they deserve, while letting our seniors live out their golden years with dignity."

"Let’s get to work," she said.

Lake took a different tack in her first public response, nearly 90 minutes after the race was called by the Tucson Sentinel and other news organizations.

"Arizonans know BS when they see it," she tweeted.

Hobbs had led by 26,011 votes Sunday night, and even pushed that margin to 30,000 during updated counts Monday.

After a large drop of 71,000 votes from Maricopa County was added to the total count Monday evening, Lake closed that gap somewhat. But only about 50,000 votes remained to be counted across Arizona.

Hobbs' campaign had described her as  the "unequivocal favorite" to be elected after Sunday's updates in the ballot count from Maricopa, Pima and Pinal counties.

"Katie has led since the first round of ballots were counted, and after tonight's results, it's clear that this won't change," campaign manager Nicole DeMont said.

The Hobbs/Lake contest was the last remaining race for governor in the country that hadn't yet been called, demonstrating just how narrow the margin was.

While there are still about 50,900 ballots yet to count in Arizona, Hobbs' vote total is far enough ahead that the GOP candidate will not be able to take the lead, a Sentinel analysis indicates. An update of 71,000 votes from Maricopa County on Saturday had a 57-43 split for the Republican, which was well short of the pace Lake needs to pull ahead overall, despite her picking up 9,750 votes in that batch.

While Republicans have put their hopes on the "late early" ballots dropped off at the polls in Maricopa County last Tuesday, Lake would have to get some 70% of all of the remaining ballots across the state to eke out a victory. Even discounting the continued 60-40 split in favor of the Democrat Hobbs in Pima County, where 7,400 ballots remain, Lake faces an insurmountable hill to climb at this point in the tabulation.

Lake, along with U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters, has trailed other GOP candidates, with many voters who otherwise supported Republicans choosing not to fill in those bubbles on their ballots. In a release of a vote count update Friday night, more than three times as many votes were tallied for the Republican candidate for Maricopa County attorney than for Lake.

Well many of the statewide and federal races have see-sawed, with leads changing as more votes were tallied, Lake never had a lead on Hobbs.

With her close win, Hobbs will move up from the office of Arizona's secretary of state to be sworn in as governor in January.

Former newscaster Kari Lake has continued to use her soft-focus TV appearances and social media to make unsupported claims of wrongdoing in the election — echoing the claims of "fraud" she sprayed during the Republican primary, only to drop them once her win over the other GOP candidates was apparent.

Prior to Sunday's updates from Pima and other counties besides Maricopa, Hobbs had led by about 34,000 votes.

There were about 58,000 ballots remaining to be counted across the state, almost all in Maricopa and Pima counties.

If the final result falls withing a half a percentage point (0.5%), there would be a recount under Arizona law. The Legislature earlier this year increased the margin that would trigger an automatic recount from the longstanding figure of 0.1%.

Follow the count

Even as news organizations "call" political races, elections officials continue to count the votes until the very last ballot. In Arizona, the election canvass — the formal announcement of the results by the secretary of state — does not take place until Dec. 5.

The most up-to-date vote totals are available at the Arizona Secretary of State's Office site:

Statewide results

Pima County results

Ballots remaining