Update: McSally-Barber count favoring challenger by 509
Thousands of ballots still to tabulate across Arizona
See this update from Saturday: No new count in Barber-McSally race until Monday
In the latest results, Martha McSally led U.S. Rep. Ron Barber by just 509 votes Friday, after being up just a few dozen votes in the count Wednesday morning. Barber picked up 455 votes in the spread as Pima County reported additional vote tallies Friday night, but the count moved in McSally's favor as Cochise County tallied another 1,000 votes.
In a hotly contested local race, incumbent Republican Ethan Orr was narrowly losing his state House seat.
The current totals in CD 2 are 105,687 for the Republican challenger, and 105,178 for the Democratic incumbent in the CD 2 race. After an additional 16,000 votes were tallied Friday, about 13,126 ballots remain to be tabulated in Pima County, with many of them potentially affecting the race.
Cochise counted about 1,065 ballots Friday, adding to the totals there. There are reportedly just 2 conditional provisional ballots left to verify there.
In 2012, Barber won by just 2,454 votes when all the votes were counted — which took days. His margin was less than one percent of the votes cast in the race.
"As expected, the vote leads continue to go up and down. Thousands of ballots remain to be counted in Pima County, where Ron is leading, and we will likely see the trend go in the direction of 2012," said Barber spokeswoman Ashley Nash-Hahn in an email Friday night. While Cochise County is a Republican stronghold, results from the more populated Pima County lean more Democratic.
The McSally camp didn't immediately issue a statement on the latest returns.
While McSally has led Barber since early Tuesday evening, her lead has shifted as new votes totals have been reported.
In results released Wednesday morning, McSally led Barber 78,785 to 78,749. In the afternoon, as Cochise County reported results, she increased her lead to 90,345-88,267.
As Pima County tallied more votes Wednesday, McSally's overall lead fell to a 94,103-92,810 (1,293 votes) spread.
Thursday, as Pima County tabulated another 16,000 votes, Barber's deficit dropped 960 votes, to just a 363-vote spread.
Midday Friday, new returns from Cochise bumped McSally back to a 772-vote lead, but Pima County votes released at 5:48 p.m. gave Barber a few more votes, moving the difference between the candidates to 317.
An update about an hour later from Cochise increased the totals for both, but gave McSally an edge, with 509 separating the two candidates.
About 3,700 Pima ballots remain to be counted, with about another 9,400 provisional ballots to be reviewed and possibly added to the tally if they prove valid. Most provisionals reviewed thus far have been added to the count.
While it's not known how many of the outstanding ballots are from CD 2, about 10,500 of the votes added to the count on Thursday were from the district, as were 10,259 of the 16,118 processed Friday, said county spokesman Mark Evans.
An automatic recount would occur if the difference between the candidates is 200 votes or less, or less than 0.1 percent of all the ballots cast in the race.
Read more about the long count in Pima County
The last few elections to determine Southeastern Arizona's congressional representative have taken days to tally, and this one looks to be no different.
In Pima County, a complete vote count could take until next Thursday, Pima County Administrator Chuck Huckelberry said. Broken election machines and a high number of difficult-to-read ballots have slowed the process, he said.
With more than 40,000 ballots left to count on Thursday morning, Huckelberry said that a "higher than average number of ballots that cannot be read by the existing scanners" and two broken ballot scanners were contributing to the long count.
Statewide, there were still nearly 134,000 ballots awaiting tabulation across the state, according to data released by the Secretary of State's Office on Friday
As of 5 p.m., those ballots included some 88,000 in Maricopa County, nearly 10,000 in Pinal County, and Pima County's remaining ballots. Most other counties had 1,000-2,000 ballots left to be tallied.
In Yuma County, the count will be halted over the weekend, and resume Monday, according to the Secretary of State's Office.
In one of the few hotly contested local legislative races, incumbent Republican Ethan Orr was narrowly losing his state House seat in LD 9. After Friday's update, Democratic incumbent Victoria Steele had 32,053, Orr had 31,584 and Democratic challenger Randy Friese had 31,783 votes in the vote-for-two contest.
Although the Dems focused on beating Orr, whom they believed they could oust from his seat in a Democratic-leaning district, other Ds were running worse than expected in state House races in solid blue districts.
In LD 2, incumbent Demion Clinco — appointed earlier this year — trailed seat-mate Rosanna Gabaldon and GOP challenger Chris Ackerley by about 2,000 votes. In LD 4, Charlene Fernandez was up 300 votes over Republican Richard Hopkins, as updates from Yuma County shifted the race. Earlier, she had trailed, while fellow Democrat Lisa Otondo led the pack.
Read more about Cochise County's ballot troubles
Technical troubles in Cochise County — where McSally made a strong 59-41 percent showing in 2012 — again delayed a complete tally there. In a repeat of problems demonstrated in the August primary, county officials said that they delivered their early ballots to Graham County to be counted.
"Due to discrepancies between the early ballot counting machine numbers and the handwritten tally, the County's early ballots have been delivered to Graham County for tabulation," said a notice on the Cochise website Wednesday.
While Cochise officials said on their website that the early ballot count should be completed Wednesday, there were still a couple thousand left to tally on Thursday evening.
Jim Vlahovich, the interim director of the county's election department, said 2,121 early ballots and 1,161 provisionals remained to be counted.
Incomplete returns reported from Cochise showed McSally up 8,318 to 3,911 over Barber Wednesday morning, with tally that afternoon at 19,864-13,415 in favor of the Republican.
Friday morning, the count stood at 21,117 for McSally to 14,259 for Barber. Friday night, the 6:41 p.m. report showed McSally up 27,731-14,681 in the heavily GOP county.
Vlahovich said Thursday that he didn't yet have an explanation for the problems with the Cochise count.
Friday, Cochise had tallied nearly all of its votes, with just a pair of conditional provisional ballots left to verify.
In Pima County, which is partly covered by Barber's CD 2, there were about 13,000 ballots remaining to review Friday night. In a process that can take up to 10 days, provisional ballots and early ballots handed in on Election Day must be verified before they can be counted. There were about 3,726 ballots remaining to be counted at the Elections Department, and roughly 9,400 provisional ballots still needing to be verified, Evans said.
The 16,000 votes counted Friday was higher than the figure of 14,000 ballots remaining to count "because the estimate on the number of duplicated ballots to count was too low last night," Evans said.
Not all provisional ballots will be valid. The reason for the delayed count is the process of reviewing early ballots returned on Election Day, to ensure that duplicate ballots were not cast by individual voters, and the verification of provisional ballots.
Voters can drop mail-in ballots at polling places on Election Day, so officials review the voter rolls to ensure that voters do not vote more multiple times. Otherwise, a voter could cast a mail-in ballot and also vote in person at the polls.
Provisional ballots are cast by voters who do not have the proper ID, who are not listed on the rolls of the polling place they are casting a ballot at, and for other reasons. For voters who lacked proper ID, they have until 5 p.m. next Wednesday to provide proof of their identity at the County Recorder's Office, in order for their vote to be counted.
Pima County "tentatively plans to update results on Saturday in the mid to late afternoon. Sunday’s count update will depend on the progress the Recorder’s Office makes on Saturday and Sunday verifying provisional ballots," Evans said.
Barber campaign advisor Rodd McLeod said Wednesday that the congressman pushed Democrats to vote early in Cochise County.
"We don't think we're going to lose (the early vote) by anywhere near the numbers we lost the Election-Day ballot," he said. "All the tens of thousands of (still uncounted) Pima votes will even it out and we'll lead in the end," he said.
Team Barber continued to put out the message that they'll win, with Nash-Hahn saying Wednesday evening that, "As we expected, vote leads have gone up and gone down. Protecting the integrity of the vote is our priority. There are still tens of thousands of votes to be counted in Pima County, where Ron currently has a lead."
McSally also sounded a note of confidence, posting on her Facebook page Wednesday: "Right now, there are still many ballots to be counted and the race is too close to be called. It's critical that every last vote is counted and that all Arizonans have their voices heard."
Speaking to supporters just before 10 p.m. Tuesday night, Barber said he'd be re-elected.
Saying his campaign decided to "take the high road, rather than the low road," Barber noted his lead in the early vote count and said, "We are going to win this seat."
"We're making sure that dark money doesn't have a victory in Arizona," Barber said. "This is the third-most expensive House race in the country, because outside forces wanted to win this seat."
The vote count tightened after Barber spoke, with his lead dropping a point, to about 1,400 votes at that point.
"Man, you guys are the people who like to stay up late," said McSally to a thinning crowd of supporters around 10:30 p.m.
"We don't expect a decision tonight, so don't feel like you have to stay around late," she said.
"We have no regrets, we didn't leave anything on the table. We worked to get every vote. And we want to make sure that every last vote is counted," she said. "Looks like it's going to be another long night."
After McSally left the podium, "We are the Champions" by Queen played on the sound system.