Brewer 18 points up on Goddard in new poll

Posted Jul 1, 2010

Dylan Smith
TucsonSentinel.com

Gov. Jan Brewer not only leads her Republican primary race, she's got a sizable lead on Attorney General Terry Goddard, who is unchallenged in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, according to a new poll.

Brewer leads Goddard by 18 points in a new survey by conservative pollsters Rasmussen Reports.

53 percent of likely voters support Brewer, while 35 back Goddard. 2 percent back another candidate, and 9 percent are undecided, Rasmussen said.

Brewer has padded her lead slightly since a May poll by Rasmussen, when she led 52-39 percent. In March, before the immigration debate heated up, she trailed the Attorney General 45-36 percent.

"Barring unforeseen developments, she is expected to easily win the August 24 primary contest," the pollster says.

Brewer’s unpopularity, largely over her handling of the state’s budget problems, prompted several other Republicans to challenge her for the gubernatorial nomination. Brewer was struggling until she signaled her opposition to the health care law and then began to move ahead. Since signing the immigration law, however, her support has soared to 61%.

Brewer's lead is due to conservative support, says Rasmussen.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Tea Party members support Brewer. Non-members break almost evenly between the two candidates.

Goddard is viewed Very Favorably by 18% of Arizona voters and Very Unfavorably by 14%. The Democratic contender, served as mayor of Phoenix in the 1980s and also is the son of a former governor.
Thirty-three percent (33%) hold a favorable opinion of Brewer, who became governor last year when President Obama named Janet Napolitano secretary of Homeland Security. Twenty-two percent (22%) view her Very Unfavorably.

Rasmussen has come under fire from using a "likely voter" model that shows more favorable results for Republican candidates.

Nate Silver, the statistics genius behind fivethirtyeight.com, says that Rasmussen's samples aren't accurate to begin with:

The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen's polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters.
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It is not sufficient, after all, to believe that Rasmussen is getting it right: you also have to believe that almost everyone else is getting it wrong.

Arizona's primary election is Aug. 24.