Election 2010: Arizona governor

Goddard leads all Republicans in poll

Posted Apr 27, 2010

Dylan Smith
TucsonSentinel.com

Terry Goddard leads all comers in the Arizona governor's race, according to Public Policy Polling.

Of all Republicans, incumbent Jan Brewer performs the best against Goddard, gaining the nod from 44 percent to the Attorney General's 47 percent.

Beyond that likely contest, Goddard polls even better, says the pollster. The Democrat leads Buz Mills 45-37, Dean Martin 47-36, and John Munger 46-31. In a hypothetical matchup against Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, he holds a 47-44 advantage - the same result as against Brewer.

Says PPP:

In the most likely match up for this fall Goddard leads Brewer 47-44. That represents a tightening since Goddard held a 46-36 lead over her last fall. Partisan preferences have hardened in the wake of Brewer's signing a tough immigration bill last week. Where Brewer was getting only 59% of the Republican vote in our last poll, she's now at 73%. But Goddard has seen a similar improvement in his own party, improving from 77% of the Democratic vote to 88%. The main reason for the overall tightening is that where Brewer trailed Goddard by 12 points with independents previously, that's now just a 2 point deficit.
There has been a great deal of movement along racial lines. In the September poll Goddard had a 3 point lead with white voters, but he now trails Brewer by 8. At the same time he's increased his lead with Hispanic voters from 20 points to 46. There are a lot more white voters in the state than Hispanic ones so from a cynical, purely political perspective Brewer's actions last week probably did her some good.

"The remainder of the race could hinge on the popularity of the controversial new immigration law which Brewer signed, Goddard opposes, and Arpaio, naturally, has lauded," said PPP's Dean Debnam in a press release. "Brewer and Arpaio could both beat Goddard if they rally illegal immigration opponents."