Updated Feb 13, 2012, 8:02 pm
While nothing can be presumed, and attempts at clairvoyance are folly in every election year, Ron Barber's entry into the Arizona CD8 congressional race might well signal the time for would-be pols to stop putting their hands up; shifting instead to those already declared putting them down.
This short election is bound to be expensive, and portends a tooth-and-nail race for CD2 this fall.
In this corner...
As of Monday morning, in the CD8 special election race to fill the seat Gabrielle Giffords vacated, the GOP field is: State Rep. Frank Antenori, construction scion Jesse Kelly, fighter pilot and defense wonk Martha McSally, sportscaster and small businessman Dave Sitton and Sierra Vista military interrogator John Lervold.
The Mules are running in a much thinner pack: former Giffords district director and camp favorite Ron Barber stands all-but-alone with the full faith, and possibly credit, of team Gabby.
State Rep. Matt Heinz is still a candidate in CD8, but said Thursday that he would withdraw from the CD8 special election to make room for Barber; while continuing to "fire on all cylinders," Heinz said, towards a CD2 bid this fall. State Sen. Paula Aboud jumped into the CD2 race Monday as well, and state Rep. Steve Farley said he'll keep his options open but step out of the race if Barber runs in the fall.
This machine runs on money
Politics is an unpredictable sport, but the requirements to play, as separate from the requirements to win, are simple. Candidates need money and friends.
Friendship in politics is often a fickle and secretive thing; and it is not subject to Federal Elections Commission disclosure or public inspection by any simple means. So we'll stick to the money for now.
Here's a look at the envelopes and paper bags full of money from Christmases, ahem, elections, past and present in CD8; and what it costs to win a seat in the big House on the Hill.
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All of the following data comes from the FEC unless otherwise noted.
Former CD8 three-term-winner Gabrielle Giffords raised $415,050 from private contributions of up to $2,500, the FEC-imposed cap on private campaign donations, between Jan. 10, 2011 and Dec. 31, 2011.
According to campaign finance reports, Giffords for Congress ended 2011 with $927,445 on-hand; and reports on what she may have taken in since New Year's Eve are not yet available. There are whispers and hints of hundreds of thousands of dollars having come in since the ball dropped in Times Square.
Giffords resigned on Jan. 25, opening her seat and prompting the special election ahead of the regular election in the newly drawn CD2 this fall.
While there are many rules specifying what can be done with cash left in a recently unemployed candidate's war chest, someone in Giffords' position can dole out that money to other candidates and committees at her discretion – or ferret away the money for a future bid.
Former candidates also reserve the right to refund money to donors following their political end-game; but seldom is that seen in national politics (a noted exception is Jon Kyl's announcement that he would do so).
Generally speaking, what starts in the family swear-jar gets disbursed within the family.
Gabby Giffords et. al. have lots and lots of money
Knowing that Giffords for Congress is likely sitting on upwards of $1 million here in the winter of 2012 – again, campaign finance reports do not reflect the most up-to-the-minute contributions – Giffords' 2010 finance numbers could paint a picture of the kind of money general election challengers in CD8 might need; and provide some insight as to where the Elephants may roam in their quest to take back a highly contested seat in the purple heart of Southern Arizona.
Independent expenditures — money spent in favor or against a candidate, but without the candidate or party's oversight, coordination or permission — against Giffords amounted to $584,930 in 2010.
Independent expenditures in favor of Giffords in the same calendar year totaled $181,049.
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In the 2009-2010 election cycle – as different from a calendar year, but encompassing the entirety of election season - Giffords took in $1,082,680 from PACs and campaign committees, and reported $2,286,026 from individual contributions; claiming $3,504,410 in total receipts.
Giffords' campaign summary expenditures, including everything from campaign staff overhead to staples, pizzas, copy toner and trips to events totaled $3,888,406 (this is more than she raised, but Giffords started 2009-2010 with $669,497 on account).
Elephants are expensive pets, but maybe cheaper than burros.
Jesse Kelly, the last GOP CD8 challenger and also a primary candidate in this year's CD8 special election, won a wide-field GOP primary in 2010 and lost the general to Giffords by 4,156 votes; a mere 1.4 percent of all votes cast in the race.
According to Kelly's 2010 FEC campaign summary, he raised $1,468,710 from private contributions in the election cycle, $178,787 from PACs, $30,496 in transfers and $11,060.00 of his own coin; for a total of $1,692,504 – approximately 48 percent of team Giffords' haul.
Kelly spent $1,653,553 over the 2009-2010 cycle – roughly 43 percent of Giffords' outlay.
Strategery and hypotheses
It takes cash to run and win an election. With the Dems likely sitting on much more money than the district's Republican hopefuls, the GOP will need a candidate capable of raising at least as much money as Kelly did in '09-'10; and capable of scoring as many points with the public on the cheap to keep the cost per vote lower than the Dems.
Conversely the Dems, while riding on relatively unseen levels of support for Barber (likely as much out of respect for his experience in a congressional office as for his name-recognition following last year's shooting that incapacitated his boss and critically injured him), might well need to spend plenty of money getting around the fact that Barber has neither served in, nor run for public office in his 66 years.
Barber has raised heaps of money since his announcement on Thursday; aide Rodd McLeod said they'd taken in $50,000 by the middle of the afternoon on the day they launched.
The GOP field's money is a little less certain, although the McSally camp acknowledged $25,000 in the first 48 hours following her Wednesday announcement.
John Lervold said on Sunday that his fundraising has been slow-going, but that he was generally interested to see the established candidate's spending patterns before making an assessment.
Antenori's camp has been mum on the subject, other than being happy to point out that finance reports are not due any time soon.
Jesse Kelly has, presumably, wads of cash hidden away, including $19,143 reported in his 2011 year-end.
From up here in the nosebleeds, the strategy on the field looks like a strong Democrat candidate trying to thin a big GOP herd by spending them into an early retreat, while hoping to preserve the moral and money high-ground to squeeze every last vote out of the district in the general.
Inside the GOP, the larger trees with more leaves of money will do everything in their financial power to prevent the light of day from reaching down to the more grassroots candidates.
Double the money, double the fun(draising)
The CD8 special election adds some extra flavor to this fall's CD2 campaign – candidates running in both elections can raise twice the cash this year than they'd normally be allowed under FEC rules. Money unspent in the first election can be carried over to the next.
Strategically, the special election muddies the water a bit, because campaigns can more-or-less double-dip campaign contributions. If I were running (for illustrative purposes only), I could fundraise for a CD8 bid and a CD2 bid concurrently – with the funds going into separate accounts.
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Of course, with CD8 elections happening on such a compressed time frame, it becomes harder to spend gobs and gobs of cash effectively on the race – leaving more money to be turned over in one way or another to a CD2 bid.
Looking at the FEC's $2,500 cap on personal contributions, I could accept $2,500 from you in my CD8 race, and that again in my CD2 bid. If I only spend $500 of the CD8 money on the first race, I can shift the remainder into my, or someone else's, CD2 account.
The only clarity in any of this is that the House might well be on the line in '12, and the DCCC wants at the very least to preserve every possible seat and set the party up to leverage a win in CD8 for a win in the new CD2 this fall. The NRCC is equally interested in tightening their grip on the House.
Crystal ballin'
Fundraising dictates political strategy in any campaign beyond most local races, and the uncommon circumstances of the CD8 election call into question the general strategies of this fall's CD2.
Weeks ago, word started to trickle out from the Giffords/Barber camps that Barber would throw his hat in the ring for CD8, but that he'd defer a run in CD2 to fellow Democrat Matt Heinz.
That strategy seemed to make a lot of sense. The Dems suspect that Antenori and Kelly will run their campaigns as they have in the past, and that local hero/celebrity Barber would draw their attention and be able to outspend them; thus clearing the way for the New Guy to go to Washington.
However, in a play to counter criticism of a "caretaker" candidate, Barber last week refused to say that he was only running in CD8, leaving open the possibility that he might yet make a play for the new CD2.
Heinz might be able to capture part of the market uninterested in Barber, and otherwise likely to vote for a moderate Republican; he is likely unable to reach the level of superstardom Barber garners just by showing up.
Above all, the party wants the seat and will likely support whomever can win it; promises and handshakes aside.
In any event, Heinz said he has every intention of staying in the race for CD2 regardless of Barber's intent.
Democrat and state Sen. Paula Aboud has also put herself in the mix for CD2, announcing her campaign in a YouTube video replete with the now-mandatory references to Giffords.
Barber/Giffords might well be the new Democratic machine – they are, at least, a huge cog, and are certainly in financial position to set the tune to which the rest of the democrat field must dance.
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Pima Dems have, in the past, won costly races in their region. In the last tilt, Kelly showed that it doesn't entirely come down to cash after nearly edging out Giffords on half the budget.
This election cycle will see unprecedented demands placed on local donors. With the CD8/CD2 elections, along with races in the new CD3 (replacing Raúl Grijalva's CD7) and the sprawling new CD1 (which extends from Utah down to Oro Valley), taking place in a presidential election year, those who regularly write checks will be asked to sign even more. And we haven't even mentioned the Legislature....
Given the national attention being paid to the race, out-of-state money may play an even bigger factor that usual. But questions remain.
Is there enough money on the GOP side to stay afloat in what will surely seem a sea of Giffords/Barber coin? Are there enough generally disgruntled independent voters who will sway slightly red? Can the Dems hold the act together long enough to have a chance in the new district this fall?
Will the GOP allow itself to give up a chance with middle-ground voters in favor of spouting off Arizona's particular brand of extreme right-wing conservatism? Can the party muster the strength to control its candidates?
Only one thing is clear at this point: CD8 might be the gateway to CD2, and no one runs to lose.
3 comments on this story
Martha McSally is not a “defense wonk,” she’s an American Hero! The first female fighter pilot to fly in combat, she stood up to military brass and refused to accept orders that degraded women in Saudi Arabia (refusing to wear the Islamic abaya). I think Gabby would like her too. As a proud Republican who voted for the once-moderate, conservative Democrat Giffords, McSally has garnered my support and my vote.
Jesse Kelly really was the best candidate for the ‘10 elections, and if the CD8 electorate were made up of voters who actually paid attention to how Gabby voted Kelly would have won in a landslide.
Unless something very crazy happens between now and the special election, I’ll be voting for Kelly…in part on the concept of karmic realignment.
Jesse Kelly, after losing to Gabby in the 2010 election, rather than stay in Arizona and try to make a difference, in a huff moved to Texas. He only returned once Gabby stepped down. If you really want to see what kind of “person” Jesse Kelly is all you have to do is to look at this taken directly from his website several days AFTER Gabby was shot at the Safeway http://j.mp/A5to9a
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