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Posted Oct 5, 2010, 12:03 pm
The race between Republican Governor Jan Brewer and Democratic challenger Terry Goddard has grown a bit tighter, according to a new poll.
But Brewer, seeking election in her own right, still has a 55-39 percent lead over the current state attorney general in a survey by Rasmussen Reports.
Three percent are backing another candidate, and 3 percent are undecided.
Last month, Brewer led Goddard 60-38 percent in a Rasmussen poll.
The automated phone survey of 500 likely voters was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research for Rasmussen on Oct. 3. The margin of error is 4.5 percent, the pollster said.
New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver, the stats geek behind the fivethirtyeight.com political blog, gives Brewer a 98.8 percent chance of a win. Silver forecasts a 57-40 percent win for Brewer on election day.
That's a complete reversal of the candidate's relative positions from early in the year.
In February, prior to the furor over SB 1070, Silver gave Brewer — then rattled by the state's dire budget crisis — only a 22 percent chance of being elected to her post. Goddard, widely regarded as an effective attorney general, was given a 77 percent chance of attaining the governor's seat.
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The now-obligatory Rasmussen disclaimer: The pollster has drawn criticism for supposedly favoring GOP candidates, particularly from Silver.