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Election 2010

Poll: McCain up 15 points over Hayworth

Sen. John McCain has a 15-point lead over challenger J.D. Hayworth in a new poll.

A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll shows the incumbent Republican up 52 percent to 37 percent over the former congressman and right-wing radio host in the race for the GOP senatorial nomination. The margin of error is 4 percent.

A Rasmussen poll two weeks ago showed McCain with a narrower 48 - 41 lead. That was before the senator made a high-profile swing through the state with Sarah Palin. Did McCain get a bump from appearing with his former running mate?

From the Daily Kos breakdown of the numbers:

Despite the conventional wisdom that McCain could be vulnerable to an intra-party challenge, we find that McCain has a fairly solid level of favorability among Republicans. His current favorability among GOP voters stands at 76%, with only 19% expressing disapproval.

Hayworth, meanwhile, may well have some upside in the GOP primary, as he is still unknown to about a quarter of the electorate. And it is worth noting that among Republicans, he is well liked (a 61/16 favorability spread).

However, his upside might be limited to a GOP primary. In a general election, he is clearly a greater liability for the GOP. Hayworth is much less popular among both Democratic and Independent voters, and sports an net negative favorability (34/42) among all voters, joining only President Obama (41/55) and incumbent GOP Governor Jan Brewer (39/54) in minus territory.

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